Canada has now marked 10 consecutive quarters of declining housing affordability—a trend that’s shifting the conversation away from mortgage rates and towards the underlying forces of home prices and income growth. As we look ahead, most economists anticipate mortgage rates will hold or even tick upward, which means that any meaningful improvement in affordability will depend on home price moderation. In markets like Vancouver, where I focus on premium presales and luxury estates, these dynamics play out with unique intensity. Slower population growth is expected to ease demand and help restrain price escalation, while the strengthening labour market should lend support to household incomes. Yet, without a sustained cooling in home prices, any gains in affordability may be modest. Across Canada, the picture is highly local—Vancouver and Toronto operate on fundamentally different wavelengths compared to Calgary or Edmonton. Navigating these shifts requires a nuanced understanding of both the macroeconomic landscape and the subtleties that define our most sought-after neighbourhoods.
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