Canada’s homebuilding activity is showing further signs of deceleration: the national six-month housing start trend dipped by roughly 1% to 244,000 units, with actual starts in larger urban centres easing by about 2% to 17,700. Year-to-date, we’re looking at 149,500 starts—down 4% from the same stretch in 2025—which suggests that new construction is still falling short of policymakers’ ambitions to accelerate supply. According to the national housing agency, while activity remains elevated compared to prior years, the expectation is for this slowdown to continue in the months ahead.
Builders are contending with a perfect storm: heightened material costs driven by ongoing US-Canada trade tensions, new tariffs, and global instability. The forecast is sobering—new home construction is projected to steadily decline through 2028, with condominium activity particularly impacted given developer cost pressures, muted demand, and excess inventory.
Having navigated Vancouver’s luxury and presale markets for nearly two decades, I see firsthand how macroeconomic trends ripple through local opportunities. For those considering new development assets or presale investments, insight and timing have never been more critical. My focus remains on equipping clients with strategic perspectives that safeguard their capital and position them advantageously in a shifting market.
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