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As we track Canada’s housing market toward a projected 2027 recovery, I’m encouraged by signs of renewed confidence: resales are on the rise, inventory is stabilizing, and prices have begun to level off. With affordability and employment metrics improving, many buyers who had stepped back during recent volatility are now better positioned to re-enter—supported by stronger savings and job security.

The outlook for 2026 suggests a slight dip, with resales forecasted to decrease about 4% to roughly 453,000 units and benchmark prices easing by 2% to around $794,000. These are measured corrections, not dramatic swings. Borrowing costs are hovering near their lowest levels, and while the central bank is expected to keep rates steady, external pressures—like ongoing trade tensions and energy market shocks—could still influence momentum.

By 2027, forecasts point to renewed gains in both resales and prices across all provinces, though the recovery may be uneven rather than sweeping. For clients navigating Vancouver’s premium strata or high-end preconstruction opportunities, my focus remains on leveraging this evolving landscape to protect and enhance your capital—using the same disciplined, finance-driven strategies that have guided my practice since 2006. As always, a nuanced, region-specific approach makes all the difference when timing high-value real estate decisions.

Development fees have a profound impact on new-home costs across Canada, especially in markets like Vancouver and Toronto. A recent national housing agency report suggests that reducing these fees could make about 14% more residential projects financially viable—an insight carrying major implications for supply. In Vancouver, where I’ve spent years guiding clients through the intricacies of the presale and luxury estate landscape, the numbers are striking: fees for comparable units can range from $20,000 to $33,000, significantly higher than Calgary’s $4,000–$9,000 range. Eliminating these charges could boost viable projects by roughly 10% in both Vancouver and Toronto, with Toronto potentially meeting half its stated supply target.

Yet, it’s crucial to remember that development levies support essential infrastructure—roads, sewers, and public administration—so a zero-fee scenario isn’t realistic. For families seeking larger, new-build homes, high fees often push prices above those of comparable resale properties, making it challenging for buyers to secure the right fit in competitive markets. As someone deeply rooted in Vancouver’s real estate ecosystem, I see strategic fee adjustments—especially on family-sized units—not just as policy, but as a lever for meaningful change in supply and affordability.

August brought a notable shift in Burnaby’s rental landscape: every category—across unit sizes and furnishings—recorded an uptick in asking rents. The standout was furnished three-bedroom apartments, which saw a ~4% leap from $3,000 to $3,200 in the latest period. Yet, for those monitoring longer-term affordability, there’s nuance: despite recent gains, unfurnished one-bedroom rents remain lower year over year—averaging $2,200 last year and still about $280 beneath levels from two years prior. Even so, Burnaby maintains its place among Canada’s top five most expensive rental cities, a fact that keeps local households’ eyes sharply focused on cost trends and value. As someone who’s spent years advising clients on both luxury and investment properties in Greater Vancouver, I know how important it is to track these shifts by segment. The current data underscores just how granular rental market dynamics can be—a reminder that opportunity and risk often go hand in hand, depending on your strategy and the property’s profile.

Canada has now marked 10 consecutive quarters of declining housing affordability—a trend that’s shifting the conversation away from mortgage rates and towards the underlying forces of home prices and income growth. As we look ahead, most economists anticipate mortgage rates will hold or even tick upward, which means that any meaningful improvement in affordability will depend on home price moderation. In markets like Vancouver, where I focus on premium presales and luxury estates, these dynamics play out with unique intensity. Slower population growth is expected to ease demand and help restrain price escalation, while the strengthening labour market should lend support to household incomes. Yet, without a sustained cooling in home prices, any gains in affordability may be modest. Across Canada, the picture is highly local—Vancouver and Toronto operate on fundamentally different wavelengths compared to Calgary or Edmonton. Navigating these shifts requires a nuanced understanding of both the macroeconomic landscape and the subtleties that define our most sought-after neighbourhoods.

A frequent question I hear from clients eyeing Vancouver’s luxury market: will lower interest rates finally deliver meaningful affordability? Recent research from the Bank of Canada offers a nuanced answer. Historically, rate cuts do spark a rapid uptick in resale activity—demand often surges within months, reaching its full effect in 18 to 24 months. Yet, new housing supply reacts much more slowly, with starts typically following about two years later. I’ve seen this play out repeatedly in our premium neighborhoods: buyers move quickly when borrowing becomes cheaper, especially when strong job markets add confidence and banks ease credit. But for builders, the math shifts only after higher prices and lower financing improve project feasibility, and even then, the realities of planning and permitting—particularly for multi-unit residences—introduce significant delays. The takeaway? While rate cuts eventually nudge supply, the lag means affordability pressures persist. Monetary policy alone can’t fix the fundamental supply-demand imbalance in Canada’s elite property sectors. Strategic, long-range thinking remains essential for those navigating high-stakes acquisitions or investments.